2026-05-18

r_E = f( r_US_10y )

r_E = f( g( E[r_ST] = cash_path     = bad for r_E,
            E[r+LT] = term_premium  = bad for r_R_US_Tsy, not so bad for r_E
                    = h( Fiscal Concerns, 
                         ss_R_B    = Bond Issurance Supply,
                         sigma_R_B = Bond Volatility,
                        
                       ) 
          ) 
       )